Hemeroteca del mes diciembre, 2017

Beijing Complicates Washington’s Afghan Strategy

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Internacionales

After a meeting in Beijing on Tuesday of the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Dialogue, a newly created trilateral format, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a major announcement that Beijing and Islamabad will look at extending the US$57 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan. Beijing has staked its prestige on fostering amity between Afghanistan and Pakistan, a daunting challenge that Western powers have failed to cope with. But by introducing the Belt and Road Initiative into the matrix, Beijing displays new thinking. The “integration” of Central Asia with South Asia has been a geopolitical objective for the US for eroding Russia’s regional dominance. “Punish Russia, forgive China” fits in with the Donald Trump administration’s tactical ploy to break up the Sino-Russian entente. Mainstream American analysts are fond of claiming that the US and China have convergent interests in Central Asia.

Unit root behavior in energy futures prices

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Educacion

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, tests for unit roots in the univariate time-series representation of the daily crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline series are performed using recent state-of-the-art methodology. The results show that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected if allowance is made for the possibility of a one-time break in the intercept and the slope of the trend function at an unknown point in time.

An Analysis of the relationship between WTI term structure and oil market fundamentals in 2002-2009

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Opinion

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the term structure of the WTI futures market between 2002 and 2009, period known by a sustained price rise followed by a price slump and again by a new price rise. To achieve this goal, we use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to decompose WTI futures price series into components which are used to explain series variability (e.g. changes in its term structure). After it, we try to identify how changes in oil markets fundamentals (physical and financial) may have contributed to oil futures term structure variability. The impact of these variables on WTI term structure is assessed using impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. This work is of interest to market analysts, hedgers, and traders, among others, because it helps to clarify how changes in oil markets may affect their strategies in these markets.

Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Economía

This paper adds to the extremely limited strand of the literature focusing on the oil price realized volatility forecasting. More specifically, we evaluate the information content of four different asset classes’ volatilities when forecasting the oil price realized volatility for 1-day until 66-day ahead. To do so, we concentrate on the Brent crude oil and fourteen other assets, which are grouped into four different asset classes, based on Heterogeneous AutoRegressive (HAR) framework. Our out-of-sample forecasting results can be summarised as follows. (i) The use of exogenous volatilities statistically significant improves the forecasting accuracy at all forecasting horizons. (ii) The HAR model that combines volatilities from multiple asset classes is the best performing model. (iii) The Direction of Change suggests that all HAR models are highly accurate in predicting future movements of oil price volatility. (iv) The forecasting accuracy of the models is better gauged using the Median Absolute Error and the Median Squared Error. (v) The findings are robust even during turbulent economic periods. Hence, different asset classes’ volatilities contain important information which can be used to improve the forecasting accuracy of oil price volatility.

The petro-yuan bombshell

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Política

The website of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) recently announced the establishment of a yuan-ruble payment system, hinting that similar systems regarding other currencies participating in the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will also be in place in the near future. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and its subsidiary, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) have already run four production environment tests for crude oil futures. Operations were supposed to start at the end of 2017; but even if they start sometime in early 2018 the fundamentals are clear; this triple win (oil/yuan/gold) completely bypasses the US dollar. The era of the petro-yuan is at hand. What’s certain is that the BRICS supported the petro-yuan move at their summit in Xiamen, as diplomats confirmed to Asia Times. Venezuela is also on board. It’s crucial to remember that Russia is number two and Venezuela is number seven among the world’s Top Ten oil producers. Considering the pull of China’s economy, they may soon be joined by other producers.

Campo 1 del Bloque Ayacucho de la Faja Petrolífera será sustento del Petro

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Nacionales

Vicepresidencia de la República 27/12/2017. Este miércoles el campo número 1 del Bloque Ayacucho de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco, fue declarado como sustento material de la criptomoneda Petro. Así lo informó el presidente de la República, Nicolás Maduro tras la firma del decreto. El Jefe de Estado explicó que este bloque posee cinco mil […]

El futuro de la negociación en dominicana

Por • 27 dic, 2017 • Category: Nacionales

Michael Penfold 27-12-2017. Es probable que contra todo pronóstico el país culmine con un acuerdo en República Dominicana. El acuerdo, si bien no será perfecto, puede llegar a cambiar la situación política tan desfavorable que actualmente enfrenta Venezuela. Ciertamente, después de los resultados electorales tanto del 15 de octubre como del 10 de diciembre, el […]

El triunfo del chavismo (91 % de las alcaldías) y la peor crisis de la historia

Por • 27 dic, 2017 • Category: Nacionales

Manuel Sutherland 27-12-2017. El domingo 10 de diciembre fue un día muy interesante en Venezuela. En el medio de la crisis económica más fuerte en la historia moderna del país, el gobierno pudo asestar otro duro golpe a la moral de la oposición. De manera categórica el chavismo ganó el 91 % de los municipios […]

Son ellos los que mienten, y no Ramírez

Por • 27 dic, 2017 • Category: Nacionales

Oscar Heck  25/12/2017. No iba a escribir hoy ya que tengo cartas que responder, y una en particular muy larga, pero … Esto es importante, creo. Recién leí con mucha atención el más reciente artículo de Rafael Ramírez, ex presidente de PDVSA y ministro de confianza durante la administración de Chávez, quien fue destituido por […]

Rafael Ramírez o ¡qué tarde piaste pajarito!

Por • 27 dic, 2017 • Category: Nacionales

  Eligio Damas 25/12/2017. Por mi condición de docente, maestro de muchachos casi toda la vida y por tener elementales nociones de derecho, pues estuve en una de esas escuelas que forman abogados y hasta por la educación que recibí de niño, no acuso ni me hago portavoz de las acusaciones que hacen otros, salvo […]