Hemeroteca del mes octubre, 2018

An attempt at reading Keynes’ Treatise on Probability

Por • 31 oct, 2018 • Category: Opinion

The book A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. It contains a critical assessment of the foundations of probability and of the current statistical methodology. As a modern reader, we review here the aspects that are most related with statistics, avoiding a neophyte’s perspective on the philosophical issues. In particular, the book is quite critical of the Bayesian approach and we examine the arguments provided by Keynes, as well as the alternative he proposes. This review does not subsume the scholarly study of Aldrich (2008a) relating Keynes with the statistics community of the time.



The origins and legacy of Kolmogorov’s Grundbegriffe

Por • 31 oct, 2018 • Category: Leyes

April 25, 2003, marked the 100th anniversary of the birth of Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov, the twentieth century’s foremost contributor to the mathematical and philosophical foundations of probability. The year 2003 was also the 70th anniversary of the publication of Kolmogorov’s Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Kolmogorov’s Grundbegriffe put probability’s modern mathematical formalism in place. It also provided a philosophy of probability – an explanation of how the formalism can be connected to the world of experience. In this article, we examine the sources of these two aspects of the Grundbegriffe – the work of the earlier scholars whose ideas Kolmogorov synthesized.



Uses of National Accounts; History, International Standardization and Applications in the Netherlands

Por • 31 oct, 2018 • Category: Economía

The national accounts is commonly known by its key-aggregates (e.g. GDP and saving) and their role in public debate and decision-making. However, the national accounts plays many different roles for many different uses. This paper provides an overview of the development of these roles and uses since the seventeenth century. Three periods are distinguished: the early estimates (1660-1930), revolutionary decades (1930-1950) and the era of the international guidelines (1950-present). The paper discusses these roles and uses also much more in detail for one country: the Netherlands, a country which played an important role in modern national accounting



Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?

Por • 31 oct, 2018 • Category: sociologia

This work examines in depth the methodological relationships that probability and statistics have maintained with the social sciences. It covers both the history of thought and current methods. First, it examines in detail the history of the different paradigms and axioms for probability, from their emergence in the seventeenth century up to the most recent developments of the three major concepts: objective, subjective and logicist probability. It shows the statistical inference they permit, different applications to social sciences and the main problems they encounter. In the other side, from social sciences—particularly population sciences— to probability, it shows the different uses they made of probabilistic concepts during their history, from the seventeenth century, according to their paradigms: cross-sectional, longitudinal, event-history, hierarchical, contextual and multilevel approaches. While the ties may have seemed loose at times, they have more often been very close: some advances in probability were driven by the search for answers to questions raised by the social sciences; conversely, the latter have made progress thanks to advances in probability.



Istanbul Summit on Syria Was a Success but Caveats Remain

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: Internacionales

The four-nation Turkey-Russia-Germany-France summit on Syria on October 27 in Istanbul had an impressive outcome. All participants – each with own interests – has some ‘takeaway’ from the summit, which itself is a measure of the success of the event. This is also important because the participants now have a reason to work together. Basically, France and Germany are lightweights in Syria. They had a limited agenda at the Istanbul summit. Russia must know fully well that in the final analysis, US involvement is crucial. It is entirely conceivable that at the forthcoming Russian-American summit in Paris on November 11, Syria will be a major topic of discussion. Now, how Turkish policies play out in Syria is difficult to predict, since the variables are too many. A US-Turkey rapprochement is hard to reach. But then, Turks and Americans are also old allies and they have a way of knocking their heads together and start working together again.



¿Qué busca el Gobierno con el “nuevo” petro?

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: Nacionales

Laura Rojas 24/10/2018. Desde que se anunció la creación del petro en diciembre 2017, la confusión ha dominado su puesta en escena. La oferta inicial de monedas (ICO, por sus siglas en inglés) en febrero de 2018 mostró un alto nivel de desorganización, con cambios de última hora en detalles técnicos básicos –e importantes–, como […]



La normalidad enferma

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: Nacionales

Teódulo López Meléndez  24/10/2018. Se ha establecido un patrón de comportamiento, el del odio, el de la mentira, el del desprecio. El cerebro humano funciona sobre la base de reconocer patrones y esos que tenemos están siendo copiados hasta un nivel insoportable. Se está uniformando el comportamiento sobre los patrones deleznables. Podríamos decir que tenemos […]



Redefining Revolutions

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: sociologia

In their account of theory change in logic, Aberdein and Read distinguish ‘glorious’ from ‘inglorious’ revolutions–only the former preserves all ‘the key components of a theory’ [1]. A widespread view, expressed in these terms, is that empirical science characteristically exhibits inglorious revolutions but that revolutions in mathematics are at most glorious [2]. Here are three possible responses: 0. Accept that empirical science and mathematics are methodologically discontinuous; 1. Argue that mathematics can exhibit inglorious revolutions; 2. Deny that inglorious revolutions are characteristic of science. Where Aberdein and Read take option 1, option 2 is preferred by Mizrahi [3]. This paper seeks to resolve this disagreement through consideration of some putative mathematical revolutions.



A propósito de la “transición energética”

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: Economía

Y de manera determinante, como contexto general, la lucha contra el calentamiento global, del cual son principales responsables los combustibles fósiles, sin que se avizoren, por ahora, métodos eficientes de control de las emisiones de su combustión y que, por otro lado, todavía son muy incipientes, limitados y poco factibles los procesos alternativos, como la “captura del carbono” que propone Donald Trump para mantener activa la producción carbonífera norteamericana y a los que se refiere Barkindo en la cita hecha más arriba, cuando hablaba de que “…las tecnologías para reducir y finalmente eliminar las emisiones de los combustibles fósiles deberían ser el foco de atención.”



Estados Unidos y Unión Europea activan vía en busca de acuerdos con Venezuela

Por • 30 oct, 2018 • Category: Nacionales

Panorama Digital 23-10-18.-Durante las últimas semanas, se ha colado nuevamente la palabra diálogo, negociación y entendimiento en el proceso político del país. Voces de la comunidad internacional, del gobierno venezolano y de algunos opositores han enfocado su atención en el estatus de la crisis, de los mecanismos de presión como las sanciones, y en un […]