Why Black Swan events must occur – an ontological investigation

Por • 12 mar, 2018 • Sección: Ambiente

Thomas Santoli, Christoph Siebenbrunner

Abstract: We develop a first-order deductive system to show that the occurrence of Black Swan events is implied by their definition. It follows as a corollary of our theorem that any computational model of decision-making under uncertainty is incomplete in the sense that not all events that occur can be taken into account. In the context of decision theory we argue that this constitutes a stronger sense of uncertainty than Knightian uncertainty.

arXiv:1803.02570v1 [q-fin.RM]

Risk Management (q-fin.RM); Logic (math.LO)

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