Resilience Dynamics of Urban Water Security in Archetype Cities

Por • 18 abr, 2019 • Sección: Ciencia y tecnología

Elisabeth H. Krueger, Dietrich Borchardt, James W. Jawitz, Harald Klammler, Soohyun Yang, Jonatan Zischg, P. Suresh C. Rao

Cities are the drivers of socio-economic innovation, and are also forced to address the accelerating risk of failure in providing essential services such as water supply today and in the future. In this contribution, we investigate the resilience of urban water supply security, which is defined in terms of the services that citizens receive. The resilience of services is determined by the availability and robustness of critical system elements, or ‘capitals’ (water resources, infrastructure, finances, management efficacy and community adaptation). We translate quantitative information about this portfolio of capitals from seven contrasting cities on four continents into parameters of a coupled systems dynamics model. Water services in each city are disrupted by recurring stochastic shocks, and we simulate the dynamics of impact and recovery cycles. Resilience emerges under various constraints, expressed in terms of each city’s capital portfolio. Systematic assessment of the parameter space produces the urban water resilience landscape, and we determine the position of each city along a continuous gradient on this landscape. In several cities stochastic disturbance regimes challenge steady-state conditions and drive system collapse. Comparison of dynamic system behavior establishes three primary system categories: 1) Water insecure and non-resilient cities, which risk being pushed into a poverty trap; 2) Cities in transition; 3) Water secure and resilient cities, some of which have developed excess capitals and risk being trapped in rigidity. In 1) and 2) community adaptation significantly improves water security and resilience. Our results provide insights into future management potential of global urban water systems.

arXiv:1904.07863v1 [physics.soc-ph]

Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)



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