Hemeroteca de la sección ‘Economía’

Chinese policymakers need to narrow focus to capital market development

Por • 14 nov, 2019 • Category: Economía

The Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, which brings uncertainty to economic policy. Current policy focuses on multiple affairs including the trade war, poverty alleviation, technology and debt. Keeping track of too many issues means policy lacks concentration. Facing multiple problems, what should be acted on first? The capital market is the most pressing issue. The flow of funds into the country through the capital market is larger in quantity and scale than that generated through traditional foreign investment. This kind of investment is what China needs now and in the future. Therefore, the construction of capital and the capital market should now be prioritized in policymaking.

Statistical Properties of Links of Network: A Survey on the Shipping Lines of Worldwide Marine Transport Network

Por • 12 nov, 2019 • Category: Economía

Node properties and node importance identification of networks have been vastly studied in the last decades. While in this work, we analyse the links’ properties of networks by taking the Worldwide Marine Transport Network (WMTN) as an example, i.e., statistical properties of the shipping lines of WMTN have been investigated in various aspects: Firstly, we study the feature of loops in the shipping lines by defining the line saturability. It is found that the line saturability decays exponentially with the increase of line length. Secondly, to detect the geographical community structure of shipping lines, the Label Propagation Algorithm with compression of Flow (LPAF) and Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) method are employed, which show rather consistent communities.

Engel’s law in the commodity composition of exports

Por • 9 nov, 2019 • Category: Economía

Different shares of distinct commodity sectors in production, trade, and consumption illustrate how resources and capital are allocated and invested. Economic progress has been claimed to change the share distribution in a universal manner as exemplified by the Engel’s law for the household expenditure and the shift from primary to manufacturing and service sector in the three sector model. Searching for large-scale quantitative evidence of such correlation, we analyze the gross-domestic product (GDP) and international trade data based on the standard international trade classification (SITC) in the period 1962 to 2000. Three categories, among ten in the SITC, are found to have their export shares significantly correlated with the GDP over countries and time; The machinery category has positive and food and crude materials have negative correlations.

Inequality gap will come back to haunt China

Por • 1 nov, 2019 • Category: Economía

Former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei warns of the dangers to the economy if Beijing fails to solve the problema. Known for his reforming zeal, he created another horror show for the CCP when he claimed the widening chasm between rich and poor was the country’s biggest challenge. “The extent of off-balance-sheet borrowing among local governments isn’t known, but could be as high as 40 trillion renminbi [yuan] (US$5.78 trillion),” it said. “That’s a debt iceberg with titanic credit risks.”

Un bref historique de l’économie expérimentale

Por • 22 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

Ce papier tente de faire un rapide historique de l’économie expérimentale depuis son origine apparente en 1948, son origine scientifique dans les années soixante notamment avec l’oeuvre de V.L.Smith jusqu’à la fin des années 90. Il présente le protocole expérimental défini par V.L.Smith et montre les liens qui ont très vite été noués entre l’économie expérimentale, la théorie des jeux et la psychologie.

An attempt at reading Keynes’ Treatise on Probability

Por • 20 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

The book A Treatise on Probability was published by John Maynard Keynes in 1921. It contains a critical assessment of the foundations of probability and of the current statistical methodology. As a modern reader, we review here the aspects that are most related with statistics, avoiding a neophyte’s perspective on the philosophical issues. In particular, the book is quite critical of the Bayesian approach and we examine the arguments provided by Keynes, as well as the alternative he proposes. This review does not subsume the scholarly study of Aldrich (2008a) relating Keynes with the statistics community of the time.

On J M Keynes’s Rejection of the Moscow School of Probability’s Limiting Frequency Approach to Probability and Kolmogorov’s Axiom of Additivity (Countable Additivity): Non –Additivity was the fundamental,basic axiom upon which all of the Economics of Keynes was Built

Por • 14 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

J M Keynes was an acknowledged, world renown, and internationally recognized expert in probability and statistics in the 1930’s based on his A Treatise on Probability (1921). . Keynes had been selected by statistics journals to serve as a referee during the 1930’s . It is, therefore, no surprise that he was selected as the referee by the League of Nations to review Jan Tinbergen’s work on business cycles that used an econometrics approach based on The Law of Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2681992 2 Large Numbers, the Central Limit Theorem, and the Gaussian(Normal) Distribution .The fundamental axiom used by Tinbergen was additivity .

« Appliquer la théorie économique de l’équilibre général » : de Walras à Leontief

Por • 11 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

The way the expresssion «applied economics» was employed changed deeply from one author to another. In this article we examine the meaning of this concept in Leon Walras’ and Wassily Leontief’s works regarding mathematical models of general interdependence and general equilibrium. It appears that empirical analysis played very different roles in their works but that they both considered economics should develop policy-oriented theory.

PDVSA: Hablemos de la Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco

Por • 9 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

La Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco (FPO) ha sido motivo de diatriba permanente desde distintos sectores. Mientras unos defienden la necesidad de su desarrollo, otros señalan la inconveniencia de continuar colocando las esperanzas en sus reservas. Más allá de dichas opiniones, la FPO sigue teniendo el indiscutible potencial de ser un buen desarrollo. A quien le importa que las reservas técnicamente recuperables sean 8% o 24%, cuando ese 8% ya resulta suficiente para extraer por varios lustros un crudo que solo será capitalizable al ser producido eficientemente. Nada le ha impedido a Canadá producir sus arenas bituminosas en Athabasca, ni tampoco a la zona compartida explotar los crudos pesados de los complejos carbonatos del eoceno en «Wafra». En condiciones climáticas y operacionales más severas y estructura de costos desventajosas en comparación con las implícitas en las operaciones de la FPO, son rentables sus operaciones.

A Statistical Field Approach to Capital Accumulation

Por • 2 oct, 2019 • Category: Economía

This paper presents a model of capital accumulation for a large number of heterogenous producer-consumers in an exchange space in which interactions depend on agents’ positions. Each agent is described by his production, consumption, stock of capital, as well as the position he occupies in this abstract space. Each agent produces one differentiated good whose price is fixed by market clearing conditions. Production functions are Cobb-Douglas, and capital stocks follow the standard capital accumulation dynamic equation. Agents consume all goods but have a preference for goods produced by their closest neighbors. Agents in the exchange space are subject both to attractive and repulsive forces. Exchanges drive agents closer, but beyond a certain level of proximity, agents will tend to crowd out more distant agents. The present model uses a formalism based on statistical field theory developed earlier by the authors. This approach allows the analytical treatment of economic models with an arbitrary number of agents, while preserving the system’s interactions and complexity at the individual level.