Hemeroteca de la sección ‘Economía’

Fractal and multifractal analysis of complex networks: Estonian network of payments

Por • 13 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Complex networks have gained much attention from different areas of knowledge in recent years. Particularly, the structures and dynamics of such systems have attracted considerable interest. Complex networks may have characteristics of multifractality. In this study, we analyze fractal and multifractal properties of a novel network: the large scale economic network of payments of Estonia, where companies are represented by nodes and the payments done between companies are represented by links. We present a fractal scaling analysis and examine the multifractal behavior of this network by using a sandbox algorithm. Our results indicate the existence of multifractality in this network and consequently, the existence of multifractality in the Estonian economy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes multifractality of a complex network of payments.

New Combinations :Taking Schumpeter’s concept serious

Por • 9 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Schumpeter’s idea that innovations can be described as new combinations often is understood as a mere metaphor and slight generalization of what he considers as the characterizing feature of entrepreneurship. The main argument of this paper is that more and deeper issues are involved in the concept of new combinations than is commonly understood. Moreover, a proper understanding of these issues would not only enhance our knowledge about observed innovation processes in economic life, it might reveal several properties common to creative processes in general.

Optimal Inflation Target: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Por • 4 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the micro-behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a surprisingly rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, stagflation, deflation and business cycles are also possible. We then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor-rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. Our main result is that too low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-controlled economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realisation of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. This predicament is alleviated by higher inflation targets that are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes, up to the point where erosion of savings becomes unacceptable. Our results are contrasted with the predictions of the standard DSGE model.

Decision-Making under Radical Uncertainty: An Interpretation of Keynes’ Treatise

Por • 26 sep, 2017 • Category: Economía

Keynes’ mathematical Treatise addresses what some call ‘radical uncertainty’, which he thought endemic in world affairs and whose appreciation underpinned much of his later work. In contrast, the mainstream view in economics, as elsewhere, has been that even if radical uncertainty exists, either there is in principle nothing that can ever be done about it, or that even if one could in theory do something about it then the institutions required would be unreliable, and one would be better off without them. Thus the mainstream has worked as if it were realistic to ignore even the possibility of radical uncertainty. But one needs some conceptualisation of radical uncertainty, such as Keynes’, before one can make such judgments. This paper presents an interpretation, to inform debate. The viewpoint taken here is mathematical, but this is not to deny the value of other views.

Relatedness, Knowledge Diffusion, and the Evolution of Bilateral Trade

Por • 22 sep, 2017 • Category: Economía

During the last decades two important contributions have reshaped our understanding of international trade. First, countries trade more with those with whom they share history, language, and culture, suggesting that trade is limited by information frictions. Second, countries are more likely to start exporting products that are similar to their current exports, suggesting that knowledge diffusion among related industries is a key constrain shaping the diversification of exports. But does knowledge about how to export to a destination also diffuses among related products and geographic neighbors? Do countries need to learn how to trade each product to each destination? Here, we use bilateral trade data from 2000 to 2015 to show that countries are more likely to increase their exports of a product to a destination when: (i) they export related products to it, (ii) they export the same product to the neighbor of a destination, (iii) they have neighbors who export the same product to that destination.

Stopping Behaviors of Naive and Non-Committed Sophisticated Agents when They Distort Probability

Por • 17 sep, 2017 • Category: Economía

We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional involving probability distortion. The problem is inherently time-inconsistent as the level of distortion of a same event changes over time. We study stopping decisions of naive agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves’ behaviors. When the state process is one dimensional and the payoff functional satisfies some regularity conditions, we prove that any equilibrium can be obtained as a fixed point of an operator. This operator represents strategic reasoning that takes the future selves’ behaviors into account. In particular, we show how such strategic reasoning may turn a naive agent into a sophisticated one. Finally, when the diffusion process is a geometric Brownian motion we derive stopping strategies of these two types of agent for various parameter specifications of the problem, illustrating rich behaviors beyond the extreme ones such as “never-stopping” or “never-starting”.

729 new measures of economic complexity (Addendum to Improving the Economic Complexity Index)

Por • 17 ago, 2017 • Category: Economía

Recently we uploaded to the arxiv a paper entitled: Improving the Economic Complexity Index. There, we compared three metrics of the knowledge intensity of an economy, the original metric we published in 2009 (the Economic Complexity Index or ECI), a variation of the metric proposed in 2012, and a variation we called ECI+. It was brought to our attention that the definition of ECI+ was equivalent to the variation of the metric proposed in 2012. We have verified this claim, and found that while the equations are not exactly the same, they are similar enough to be our own oversight. More importantly, we now ask: how many variations of the original ECI work? In this paper we provide a simple unifying framework to explore multiple variations of ECI, including both the original 2009 ECI and the 2012 variation. We found that a large fraction of variations have a similar predictive power, indicating that the chance of finding a variation of ECI that works, after the seminal 2009 measure, are surprisingly high.

A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. Part II: Predicting the declines in regional oil consumption

Por • 12 ago, 2017 • Category: Economía

In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the planet from 2015 to 2050. In part II, the oil export and oil consumption patterns, that were established in recent decades, are combined with the consequences of the forecast declines in regional oil production that were developed in part I of this analysis. The results are quantitative predictions of the maximum possible region-by-region oil consumption during the next 20 years. The predictions indicate that several of the larger oil consuming and importing countries and regions will be confronted with the economic consequences of the onset of the world’s final oil supply crisis as early as 2020.

Measuring the Knowledge Intensity of Economies with an Improved Measure of Economic Complexity

Por • 20 jul, 2017 • Category: Economía

How much knowledge is there in an economy? In recent years, data on the mix of products that countries export has been used to construct measures of economic complexity that estimate the knowledge available in an economy and predict future economic growth. Here we introduce a new metric of economic complexity (ECI+) that measures the total exports of an economy corrected by how difficult it is to export each product. We use data from 1973 to 2013 to compare the ability of ECI+, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), and Fitness complexity, to predict future economic growth using 5, 10, and 20-year panels in a pooled OLS, a random effects model, and a fixed effects model. We find that ECI+ outperforms ECI and Fitness in its ability to predict economic growth and in the consistency of its estimators across most econometric specifications. We then combine ECI+ with measures of physical capital, human capital, and institutions, to select a robust model of economic growth and test the robustness of ECI+.

The Gross Domestic Product. History, relevance and limitations in its interpretation

Por • 19 jul, 2017 • Category: Economía

Despite theoretical and methodological improvements by national accounts framework revisions, not without disputes and confrontations of views, the growing complexity of economic and social phenomena under globalization circumstances has led to increasing difficulties in the design, monitoring and implementation of specific policies depending on GDP indicator. The paper focuses on the analysis of the GDP relevance and limitations in its interpretation, including a retrospective view. Some inconsistencies as regards the metrics of GDP (illegal activities, unobserved economy, self-consumption in rural households, owner’s imputed rents) are highlighted. Because the GDP does not take into account the impact of important factors of progress (depletion of natural resources, environmental factors, urban concentration and rural depopulation etc.) and does not reflects neither the citizens wellbeing (starting from Easterlin Paradox), efforts to develop new statistical standards in order to complement/substitute GDP