Hemeroteca de la sección ‘Economía’

Wolfgang Mühlpfordt and the ‘transformation problem’: some remarks on articles by Howard and King and Gilibert

Por • 21 feb, 2018 • Category: Economía

Until recently, the name of Wolfgang Mühlpfordt (1872-1928) was certainly not among those a theoretical economist was expected to know. Mühlpfordt has now been rehabilitated not only in the Cambridge Journal of Economics (Howard and King: 1987 and Gilibert:1991), but also in the German Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik (Quaas:1991). There are many points of correspondence between my own interpretation and the assessments of Mühlpfordt by Gilibert and by Howard and King. However, I believe it is possible to add some further remarks and also to make some corrections. We do not know why Mühlpfordt did not react to Bortkiewicz’s famous articles (1907), to which he would certainly have had something to say. Mühlpfordt was more advanced than Bortkiewicz, since his mathematical approach is of more general validity and he prepared the way for the modern theory of production prices which is now associated with, among others, the name of Piero Sraffa.



Crítica a Böhm-Bawerk (y 6)

Por • 15 feb, 2018 • Category: Economía

Quiero acabar estas entregas con un trabajo de lectura más fluida, sin tantos escalones y tropiezos. Lo primero que haré será exponer de forma sucinta las tres críticas fundamentales que Böhm-Bawerk formula contra el pensamiento económico de Marx. Primera crítica: Cuando Marx admite que en el mercado capitalista y por medio de la competencia las mercancías se venden por sus precios de producción, deja sin validez su teoría del valor. Segunda crítica: Marx no reconoce el papel destacado que tiene el valor de uso en el mercado. Y tercera crítica: Marx no reconoce el papel que tiene la oferta y la demanda en la determinación de los precios o la subestima.



Capital Structure in U.S., a Quantile Regression Approach with Macroeconomic Impacts

Por • 7 feb, 2018 • Category: Economía

The major perspective of this paper is to provide more evidence into the empirical determinants of capital structure adjustment in different macroeconomics states by focusing and discussing the relative importance of firm-specific and macroeconomic characteristics from an alternative scope in U.S. This study extends the empirical research on the topic of capital structure by focusing on a quantile regression method to investigate the behavior of firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables across all quantiles of distribution of leverage (total debt, long-terms debt and short-terms debt). Thus, based on a partial adjustment model, we find that long-term and short-term debt ratios varying regarding their partial adjustment speeds; the short-term debt raises up while the long-term debt ratio slows down for same periods.



Foro China-CELAC

Por • 28 ene, 2018 • Category: Economía

Un hito en la geopolítica latinoamericana se produjo con los “Diálogos estratégicos entre EE.UU. y China sobre Latinoamérica” que tuvieron lugar desde 2006 con la administración Obama, porque EE.UU. le brindó un trato igualitario a la potencia asiática y reconoció la legitimidad de sus intereses en la región. EE.UU. abrió su interpretación de la doctrina Monroe y dejó de considerar la presencia de una potencia extranjera en la región como una amenaza. El foro China CELAC, ha generado en tiempo vertiginoso un sinnúmero de interacciones aplicando en Plan de Cooperación 2015-2019,[6] por lo que algunos lo denominan “el Plan Marshall chino”. El Canciller Wang Yi transmitió a los países de la región que “China está dispuesta a seguir tomándolos como socios prioritarios e importantes” y que “profundizará la cooperación con éstos en el marco del FCC y la construcción conjunta de la Franja y la Ruta en procura del desarrollo compartido, con apego a los principios de respeto mutuo, consultas en pie de igualdad y beneficio recíproco.”



CryptoRuble: From Russia with Love

Por • 20 ene, 2018 • Category: Economía

We discuss Russia’s underlying motives for issuing its government-backed cryptocurrency, CryptoRuble, and the implications thereof and of other likely-soon-forthcoming government-issued cryptocurrencies to some stakeholders (populace, governments, economy, finance, etc.), existing decentralized cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), as well as the future of the world monetary system (the role of the U.S. therein and a necessity for the U.S. to issue CryptoDollar), including a future algorithmic universal world currency that may also emerge. We further provide a comprehensive list of references on cryptocurrencies.



Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling “Theory” of Financial Markets For Practitioners and Theorists

Por • 17 ene, 2018 • Category: Economía

The purpose of this article is to propose a new “theory,” the Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (SAFM) theory, that explains the operation of financial markets using the analytical perspective of an enlightened gambler. The gambler understands that all opportunities for superior performance arise from suboptimal decisions by humans, but understands also that knowledge of human decision making alone is not enough to understand market behavior — one must still model how those decisions lead to market prices. Thus are there three parts to the model: gambling theory, human decision making, and strategic problem solving. A new theory is necessary because at this writing in 2017, there is no theory of financial markets acceptable to both practitioners and theorists.



On a Constructive Theory of Markets

Por • 11 ene, 2018 • Category: Economía

This article is a prologue to the article “Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling ‘Theory’ of Financial Markets for Practitioners and Theorists.” It presents important background for that article — why gambling is important, even necessary, for real-world traders — the reason for the superiority of the strategic/gambling approach to the competing market ideologies of market fundamentalism and the scientific approach — and its potential to uncover profitable trading systems. Much of this article was drawn from Chapter 1 of the book “The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (in 2 volumes)” World Scientific, 2017.



Accelerators in macroeconomics: Comparison of discrete and continuous approaches

Por • 5 ene, 2018 • Category: Economía

We prove that the standard discrete-time accelerator equation cannot be considered as an exact discrete analog of the continuous-time accelerator equation. This leads to fact that the standard discrete-time macroeconomic models cannot be considered as exact discretization of the corresponding continuous-time models. As a result, the equations of the continuous and standard discrete models have different solutions and can predict the different behavior of the economy. In this paper, we propose a self-consistent discrete-time description of the economic accelerators that is based on the exact finite differences. For discrete-time approach, the model equations with exact differences have the same solutions as the corresponding continuous-time models and these discrete and continuous models describe the same behavior of the economy



Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach

Por • 28 dic, 2017 • Category: Economía

This paper adds to the extremely limited strand of the literature focusing on the oil price realized volatility forecasting. More specifically, we evaluate the information content of four different asset classes’ volatilities when forecasting the oil price realized volatility for 1-day until 66-day ahead. To do so, we concentrate on the Brent crude oil and fourteen other assets, which are grouped into four different asset classes, based on Heterogeneous AutoRegressive (HAR) framework. Our out-of-sample forecasting results can be summarised as follows. (i) The use of exogenous volatilities statistically significant improves the forecasting accuracy at all forecasting horizons. (ii) The HAR model that combines volatilities from multiple asset classes is the best performing model. (iii) The Direction of Change suggests that all HAR models are highly accurate in predicting future movements of oil price volatility. (iv) The forecasting accuracy of the models is better gauged using the Median Absolute Error and the Median Squared Error. (v) The findings are robust even during turbulent economic periods. Hence, different asset classes’ volatilities contain important information which can be used to improve the forecasting accuracy of oil price volatility.



Cash Accumulation Strategy based on Optimal Replication of Random Claims with Ordinary Integrals

Por • 24 dic, 2017 • Category: Economía

This paper presents a numerical model to solve the problem of cash accumulation strategies for products with an unknown future price, like assets. Stock prices are modeled by a discretized Wiener Process, and by the means of ordinary integrals this Wiener Process will be exactly matched at a preset terminal time. Three applications of the model are presented: accumulating cash for a single asset, for set of different assets, and for a proportion of the excess achieved by a certain asset. Furthermore, an analysis of the efficiency of the model as function of different parameters is performed.