Hemeroteca de la sección ‘Economía’

Cinco libros para entender la visión económica del chavismo

Por • 4 dic, 2017 • Category: Economía

“La transición venezolana al socialismo”, Jorge Giordani. El libro del actual ministro de Finanzas es una reflexión sobre el proceso que se ha llevado en Venezuela durante los últimos 12 años, dice Antolínez. Según señala Vive TV, el texto plantea como puntos importantes el proceso de cambio que está viviendo el pueblo venezolano en virtud de su transición de un modelo capitalista a uno socialista y las posibles directrices que se siguen. Nota de Benito Díaz Díaz en el año 2010 “Las grandes ausencias del recuento del texto deben incluir la falta de evaluación del Plan de la Nación 2001-2007, la falta de participación popular en el proceso de consulta para la construcción de la imagen objetivo del plan 2007-2013, y las críticas sobre las deficiencias en el proceso de construcción del intelectual orgánico que encarna el partido, a estas últimas les dedica un espacio con propuestas programáticas que comparte con el Grupo Aerópago Socialista”.



A New Interpretation of the Economic Complexity Index

Por • 28 nov, 2017 • Category: Economía

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) has been successful in explaining differences in GDP/capita and economic growth across countries. There has been confusion, however, about what it means and why it works. The ECI was originally motivated as an enhancement of diversity which is defined as the number of products a country is competitive in. However, the ECI is orthogonal to diversity. Nor is the ECI an eigenvalue centrality measure – in fact, the standard eigenvalue centrality measure applied to the export similarity matrix is equivalent to diversity. Instead we show that the ECI can be understood in terms of spectral clustering. It corresponds to an approximate solution to the problem of partitioning a graph into two parts in order to minimize the connections between the parts. It can also be viewed as an optimal one-dimensional ordering that clusters countries with similar exports together and minimizes the distance between countries. We present two empirical examples that involve regional employment in occupations and industries rather than exports, in which diversity fails to be a distinguishing feature of the data. These particular regional settings illustrate how the ECI can be useful even when diversity is not.



A Meta-theoretical Assessment of the Decline of Scholastic Economics

Por • 15 nov, 2017 • Category: Economía

The aim of this paper is to offer certain insights into the process of declining of scholastic economics in late medieval and early modern European intellectual circles. In this attempt, the paper adopts the metatheoretical framework of Laudan’s philosophy of science and introduces the concept of scientific research tradition in pre-classical economic thought. It then considers the features of scholastic research tradition, specifies its empirical and conceptual problems and indicates a general scenario of assessing its performance over time. Of primary importance, in this respect, becomes the issue of evaluating the external and internal factors of disintegrating of the scholastic tradition, whose constraints reflect its incorporation into a broader ethical analysis and necessitate its transformation into a more secular approach to economic phenomena.



Mean Field Game Approach to Production and Exploration of Exhaustible Commodities

Por • 3 nov, 2017 • Category: Economía

In a game theoretic framework, we study energy markets with a continuum of homogenous producers who produce energy from an exhaustible resource such as oil. Each producer simultaneously optimizes production rate that drives her revenues, as well as exploration effort to replenish her reserves. This exploration activity is modeled through a controlled point process that leads to stochastic increments to reserves level. The producers interact with each other through the market price that depends on the aggregate production. We employ a mean field game approach to solve for a Markov Nash equilibrium and develop numerical schemes to solve the resulting system of non-local HJB and transport equations with non-local coupling. A time-stationary formulation is also explored, as well as the fluid limit where exploration becomes deterministic.



A Mathematical Analysis of Technical Analysis

Por • 1 nov, 2017 • Category: Economía

In this paper, we study trading strategies based on exponential moving averages (ExpMA), an important indicator in technical analysis. We seek optimal ExpMA strategies when the drift of the underlying is modeled by either an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or a two-state continuous-time Markov chain. Closed-form solutions are obtained under the logarithm utility maximization and the long-term growth rate maximization.



Fractal and multifractal analysis of complex networks: Estonian network of payments

Por • 13 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Complex networks have gained much attention from different areas of knowledge in recent years. Particularly, the structures and dynamics of such systems have attracted considerable interest. Complex networks may have characteristics of multifractality. In this study, we analyze fractal and multifractal properties of a novel network: the large scale economic network of payments of Estonia, where companies are represented by nodes and the payments done between companies are represented by links. We present a fractal scaling analysis and examine the multifractal behavior of this network by using a sandbox algorithm. Our results indicate the existence of multifractality in this network and consequently, the existence of multifractality in the Estonian economy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes multifractality of a complex network of payments.



New Combinations :Taking Schumpeter’s concept serious

Por • 9 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Schumpeter’s idea that innovations can be described as new combinations often is understood as a mere metaphor and slight generalization of what he considers as the characterizing feature of entrepreneurship. The main argument of this paper is that more and deeper issues are involved in the concept of new combinations than is commonly understood. Moreover, a proper understanding of these issues would not only enhance our knowledge about observed innovation processes in economic life, it might reveal several properties common to creative processes in general.



Optimal Inflation Target: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Por • 4 oct, 2017 • Category: Economía

Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the micro-behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a surprisingly rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, stagflation, deflation and business cycles are also possible. We then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor-rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. Our main result is that too low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-controlled economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realisation of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. This predicament is alleviated by higher inflation targets that are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes, up to the point where erosion of savings becomes unacceptable. Our results are contrasted with the predictions of the standard DSGE model.



Decision-Making under Radical Uncertainty: An Interpretation of Keynes’ Treatise

Por • 26 sep, 2017 • Category: Economía

Keynes’ mathematical Treatise addresses what some call ‘radical uncertainty’, which he thought endemic in world affairs and whose appreciation underpinned much of his later work. In contrast, the mainstream view in economics, as elsewhere, has been that even if radical uncertainty exists, either there is in principle nothing that can ever be done about it, or that even if one could in theory do something about it then the institutions required would be unreliable, and one would be better off without them. Thus the mainstream has worked as if it were realistic to ignore even the possibility of radical uncertainty. But one needs some conceptualisation of radical uncertainty, such as Keynes’, before one can make such judgments. This paper presents an interpretation, to inform debate. The viewpoint taken here is mathematical, but this is not to deny the value of other views.



Relatedness, Knowledge Diffusion, and the Evolution of Bilateral Trade

Por • 22 sep, 2017 • Category: Economía

During the last decades two important contributions have reshaped our understanding of international trade. First, countries trade more with those with whom they share history, language, and culture, suggesting that trade is limited by information frictions. Second, countries are more likely to start exporting products that are similar to their current exports, suggesting that knowledge diffusion among related industries is a key constrain shaping the diversification of exports. But does knowledge about how to export to a destination also diffuses among related products and geographic neighbors? Do countries need to learn how to trade each product to each destination? Here, we use bilateral trade data from 2000 to 2015 to show that countries are more likely to increase their exports of a product to a destination when: (i) they export related products to it, (ii) they export the same product to the neighbor of a destination, (iii) they have neighbors who export the same product to that destination.