On J M Keynes’s Rejection of the Moscow School of Probability’s Limiting Frequency Approach to Probability and Kolmogorov’s Axiom of Additivity (Countable Additivity ):

Por • 23 ene, 2020 • Sección: Educacion

Michael Brady California State University, Dominguez Hills

J M Keynes was an acknowledged, world renown, and internationally recognized expert in probability and statistics in the 1930’s based on his A Treatise on Probability (1921). . Keynes had been selected by statistics journals to serve as a referee during the 1930’s. It is, therefore, no surprise that he was selected as the referee by the League of Nations to review Jan Tinbergen’s work on business cycles that used an econometrics approach based on The Law of Large Numbers, the Central Limit Theorem, and the Gaussian (Normal) Distribution .The fundamental axiom used by Tinbergen was additivity . Kolmogorov and the Moscow School of Probability’s main innovation was to go from the axiom of additivity to the axiom of countable additivity. However, Keynes rejected additivity except in the special case that the weight of the evidence, w, which measured the relative completeness of the evidence ,defined on the closed unit interval [0,1],equaled 1 , approached 1,or approximated 1. Keynes also accepted goodness of fit tests, such as the Lexis –Q test, and exploratory data analysis as evidence that could be used to support using a particular probability distribution.


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