Universal Predictability of Mobility Patterns in Cities

Por • 30 jul, 2013 • Sección: sociologia

Xiao-Yong Yan, Chen Zhao, Ying Fan, Zengru Di, Wen-Xu Wang

Abstract: Despite the long history towards modeling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate but low data requirement approach to predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a conduction-like stochastic process without adjustable parameter to capture the underlying driving force accounting for human mobility patterns at the city scale. We use various mobility data collected from a number of cities with different characteristics to demonstrate the predictive power of our model, finding that insofar as the spatial distribution of population is available, our model offers universal prediction of mobility patterns in good agreement with real observations, including distance distribution, destination travel constraints and flux. In contrast, the models quite successful in modeling mobility patterns in countries are not applicable in cities, suggesting the diversity of human mobility at different spatial scales. Our model has potential applications in many fields relevant to mobility behavior in cities, without relying on previous mobility measurements.

arXiv:1307.7502v1 [physics.soc-ph]

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