Artículos con la etiqueta ‘Data Analysis’

Propagation of Economic Shocks in Input-Output Networks: A Cross-Country Analysis

Por • 29 ene, 2014 • Category: sociologia

This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European countries before the Great Depression. We show that the impact of economic shocks strongly depends on the nature of the shock and country size. Shocks that impact on final demand without changing production and the technological relationships between sectors have on average a large but very homogeneous impact on the economy.



Global Inequality in Energy Consumption from 1980 to 2010

Por • 31 dic, 2013 • Category: Economía

We study the global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 1980-2010. We find that the Lorenz curves have moved up during this time period, and the Gini coefficient G has decreased from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.55 in 2010, indicating a decrease in inequality. The global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita in 2010 is close to the exponential distribution with G=0.5. We attribute this result to the globalization of the world economy, which mixes the world and brings it closer to the state of maximal entropy. We argue that global energy production is a limited resource that is partitioned among the world population. The most probable partition is the one that maximizes entropy, thus resulting in the exponential distribution function. A consequence of the latter is the law of 1/3: the top 1/3 of the world population consumes 2/3 of produced energy. We also find similar results for the global probability distribution of CO2 emissions per capita.



Causality and local determinism versus quantum nonlocality

Por • 29 dic, 2013 • Category: Ciencia y tecnología

The entanglement and the violation of Bell and CHSH inequalities in spin polarization correlation experiments (SPCE) is considered to be one of the biggest mysteries of Nature and is called quantum nonlocality. In this paper we show once again that this conclusion is based on imprecise terminology and on the lack of understanding of probabilistic models used in various proofs of Bell and CHSH theorems. These models are inconsistent with experimental protocols used in SPCE. This is the only reason why Bell and CHSH inequalities are violated. A probabilistic non-signalling description of SPCE, consistent with quantum predictions, is possible and it depends explicitly on the context of each experiment. It is also deterministic in the sense that the outcome is determined by supplementary local parameters describing both a physical signals and measuring instruments.



Models and Simulations in Material Science: Two Cases Without Error Bars

Por • 28 nov, 2013 • Category: Educacion

We discuss two research projects in material science in which the results cannot be stated with an estimation of the error: a spectro- scopic ellipsometry study aimed at determining the orientation of DNA molecules on diamond and a scanning tunneling microscopy study of platinum-induced nanowires on germanium. To investigate the reliability of the results, we apply ideas from the philosophy of models in science. Even if the studies had reported an error value, the trustworthiness of the result would not depend on that value alone.



Copulas and time series with long-ranged dependences

Por • 27 nov, 2013 • Category: Crítica

We review ideas on temporal dependences and recurrences in discrete time series from several areas of natural and social sciences. We revisit existing studies and redefine the relevant observables in the language of copulas (joint laws of the ranks). We propose that copulas provide an appropriate mathematical framework to study non-linear time dependences and related concepts – like aftershocks, Omori law, recurrences, waiting times. We also critically argue using this global approach that previous phenomenological attempts involving only a long-ranged autocorrelation function lacked complexity in that they were essentially mono-scale.



Virality Prediction and Community Structure in Social Networks

Por • 25 nov, 2013 • Category: sociologia

How does network structure affect diffusion? Recent studies suggest that the answer depends on the type of contagion. Complex contagions, unlike infectious diseases (simple contagions), are affected by social reinforcement and homophily. Hence, the spread within highly clustered communities is enhanced, while diffusion across communities is hampered. A common hypothesis is that memes and behaviors are complex contagions. We show that, while most memes indeed behave like complex contagions, a few viral memes spread across many communities, like diseases. We demonstrate that the future popularity of a meme can be predicted by quantifying its early spreading pattern in terms of community concentration. The more communities a meme permeates, the more viral it is. We present a practical method to translate data about community structure into predictive knowledge about what information will spread widely. This connection may lead to significant advances in computational social science, social media analytics, and marketing applications.



A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

Por • 28 oct, 2013 • Category: Ambiente

Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems but few statistically founded evidence have been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and indices sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to the criticality in the crash neighborhood.



Novel measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity for use in complex system behavior studies and time series analysis

Por • 9 oct, 2013 • Category: Crítica

We have proposed novel measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity for use in complex system behavior studies and time series analysis. We have considered background of the Kolmogorov complexity and also we have discussed meaning of the physical as well as other complexities. To get better insights into the complexity of complex systems and time series analysis we have introduced the three novel measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity: (i) the Kolmogorov complexity spectrum, (ii) the Kolmogorov complexity spectrum highest value and (iii) the overall Kolmogorov complexity. The characteristics of these measures have been tested using a generalized logistic equation. Finally, the proposed measures have been applied on different time series originating from: the model output (the biochemical substance exchange in a multi-cell system), four different geophysical phenomena (dynamics of: river flow, long term precipitation, indoor 222Rn concentration and UV radiation dose) and economy (stock prices dynamics). Results which are obtained offer deeper insights into complexity of the system dynamics behavior and time series analysis when the proposed complexity measures are applied.



Revealing the intricate effect of collaboration on innovation

Por • 15 sep, 2013 • Category: Educacion

We study the Japan and U.S. patent records of several decades to demonstrate the effect of collaboration on innovation. We find that statistically inventor teams slightly outperform solo inventors while company teams perform equally well as solo companies. By tracking the performance record of individual teams we find that inventor teams’ performance generally degrades with more repeat collaborations. Though company teams’ performance displays strongly bursty behavior, long-term collaboration does not significantly help innovation at all. To systematically study the effect of repeat collaboration, we define the repeat collaboration number of a team as the average number of collaborations over all the teammate pairs. We find that mild repeat collaboration improves the performance of Japanese inventor teams and U.S. company teams.



Patent Overlay Mapping: Visualizing Technological Distance

Por • 14 sep, 2013 • Category: Educacion

This paper presents a new global patent map that represents all technological categories, and a method to locate patent data of individual organizations and technological fields on the global map. This overlay map technique can support competitive intelligence and policy decision-making. The global patent map is based on similarities in citing-to-cited relationships between categories of the International Patent Classification (IPC) of European Patent Office (EPO) patents from 2000 to 2006. This patent dataset, extracted from the PatStat database, includes 760,000 patent records in more than 400 IPC categories.