Artículos con la etiqueta ‘econofísica’

Contextual and Structural Representations of Market-mediated Economic Value

Por • 31 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

How do we assign value to economic transactions? To answer this question, we must consider whether the value of objects is inherent, is a product of social interaction, or involves other mechanisms. Economic theory predicts that there is an optimal price for any market transaction, and can be observed during auctions or other bidding processes. However, there are also social, cultural, and cognitive components to the assignation of value, which can be observed in both human and non-human Primate societies. While behaviors related to these factors are embedded in market interactions, they also involve a biological substrate for the assignation of value (valuation). To synthesize this diversity of perspectives, we will propose that the process of valuation can be modeled computationally and conceived of as a set of interrelated cultural evolutionary, cognitive, and neural processes.

The Kinetics of Wealth and the Origin of the Pareto Law

Por • 7 ene, 2013 • Category: Economía

An important class of economic models involve agents whose wealth changes due to transactions with other agents. Several authors have pointed out an analogy with kinetic theory, which describes molecules whose momentum and energy changes due to interactions with other molecules. We pursue this analogy and derive a Boltzmann equation for the time evolution of the wealth distribution of a population of agents for the so-called Yard-Sale Model of wealth exchange. We examine the solutions to this equation by a combination of analytical and numerical methods, and investigate its long-time limit. We study an important limit of this equation for small transaction sizes, and derive a partial integrodifferential equation governing the evolution of the wealth distribution in a closed economy. We then describe how this model may be extended to include features such as production, inflation, and taxation.

A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

Por • 27 sep, 2012 • Category: Economía

In a recent paper in this journal [J. Stat. Mech. (2009) P02037] we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes having its roots in the framework of the k-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the k-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the U.S. household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature.

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Por • 15 jul, 2012 • Category: Economía

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore’s law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright’s law produces the best forecasts, but Moore’s law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore’s law and Wright’s law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation.

Network structure of inter-industry flows

Por • 23 abr, 2012 • Category: Economía

We study the structure of inter-industry relationships using networks of money flows between industries in 20 national economies. We find these networks vary around a typical structure characterized by a Weibull link weight distribution, exponential industry size distribution, and a common community structure. The community structure is hierarchical, with the top level of the hierarchy comprising five industry communities: food industries, chemical industries, manufacturing industries, service industries, and extraction industries.

Transformation Networks: How Innovation and the Availability of Technology can Increase Economic Performance

Por • 31 dic, 2011 • Category: sociologia

A transformation network describes how one set of resources can be transformed into another via technological processes. Transformation networks in economics are useful because they can highlight areas for future innovations, both in terms of new products, new production techniques, or better efficiency. They also make it easy to detect areas where an economy might be fragile. In this paper, we use computational simulations to investigate how the density of a transformation network affects the economic performance, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), of an artificial economy. Our results show that on average, the GDP of our economy increases as the density of the transformation network increases. We also find that while the average performance increases, the maximum possible performance decreases and the minimum possible performance increases.

Econophysics: Bridges over a Turbulent Current

Por • 28 jul, 2011 • Category: Economía

In this editorial guide for the special issue on econophysics, we give a unique review of this young but quickly growing discipline. A suggestive taxonomy of the development is proposed by making a distinction between classical econophysics and modern econophysics. For each of these two stages of development, we identify the key economic issues whose formulations and/or treatments have been affected by physics or physicists, which includes value, business fluctuations, economic growth, economic and financial time series, the distribution of economic entities, interactions of economic agents, and economic and social networks.

An ‘almost’ linear stochastic map model for economic dynamics

Por • 21 ene, 2011 • Category: Opinion

In the last decade, an array of observations in economics has been investigated in the econophysics literature, a major example being the universal features of inequality in terms of income and wealth