Artículos con la etiqueta ‘economía’

Las bandas son peligrosas: las de terroristas y las cambiarias; y se juntan

Por • 4 abr, 2014 • Category: Nacionales

: De entrada, debemos decir que nos ha alarmado algunas palabras “sueltas” en el discurso oficial que parecieran, en efecto, estar avalando la tesis ya fracasada de la “flotación cambiaria” y las “bandas cambiarias” y el tristemente famoso “crawling peg”.

International Transmission of Shocks and Fragility of a Bank Network

Por • 9 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

The weighted and directed network of countries based on the number of overseas banks is analyzed in terms of its fragility to the banking crisis of one country. We use two different models to describe transmission of shocks, one local and the other global. Depending on the original source of the crisis, the overall size of crisis impacts is found to differ country by country. For the two-step local spreading model, it is revealed that the scale of the first impact is determined by the out-strength, the total number of overseas branches of the country at the origin of the crisis, while the second impact becomes more serious if the in-strength at the origin is increased. For the global spreading model, some countries named “triggers” are found to play important roles in shock transmission, and the importance of the feed-forward-loop mechanism is pointed out. We also discuss practical policy implications of the present work.

China pone la mira en Crimea

Por • 8 mar, 2014 • Category: Política

Alexéi Máslov, dijo a La Voz de Rusia que China aún a fines de 2011 propuso a la Unión Europea prestarle ayuda anticrisis a condición de que se cumpla una de las tres condiciones china: elevar el estatus de China en el Fondo Monetario Internacional, ampliar sus derechos en la Organización Mundial de Comercio o bien levantar el embargo de armas europeas a China. Entonces la jefatura de la Unión Europea calificó estas propuestas de “humillantes y peligrosas”. Alexéi Máslov señala: Toda la política china y toda su tradicional cultura política se basan en que China calcula muy correctamente todos sus pasos. Aquí no hay filantropía alguna, pero sí un cálculo bien preciso de “entrada” de China en Europa. Semejante “entrada” activa comenzó durante la crisis de los años 2008-2009. Actualmente China tiene la posibilidad de hacerse con el control de áreas enteras de la industria europea.

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

Por • 6 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

n expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark.

Intensive and extensive biases in economic networks: reconstructing world trade

Por • 20 feb, 2014 • Category: Economía

In economic and financial networks, the strength (total value of the connections) of a given node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting deviations of an empirical network from economically meaningful benchmarks or reconstruct the most likely structure of an economic network when the latter is unknown. However, several studies have proved that real economic networks are topologically very different from networks inferred only from node strengths. Here we provide a detailed analysis for the World Trade Web (WTW) by comparing it to an enhanced null model that simultaneously reproduces the strength and the number of connections of each node.

Hierarchical Economic Agents and their Interactions

Por • 1 ene, 2014 • Category: sociologia

We present a new type of spin market model, populated by hierarchical agents, represented as configurations of sites and arcs in an evolving network. We describe two analytic techniques for investigating the asymptotic behavior of this model: one based on the spectral theory of Markov chains and another exploiting contingent submartingales to construct a deterministic cellular automaton that approximates the stochastic dynamics. Our study of this system documents a phase transition between a sub-critical and a super-critical regime based on the values of a coupling constant that modulates the tradeoff between local majority and global minority forces. In conclusion, we offer a speculative socioeconomic interpretation of the resulting distributional properties of the system.

Emergent quantum mechanics of finances

Por • 23 dic, 2013 • Category: Ambiente

This paper is an attempt at understanding the quantum-like dynamics of financial markets in terms of non-differentiable price-time continuum having fractal properties. The main steps of this development are the statistical scaling, the non-differentiability hypothesis, and the equations of motion entailed by this hypothesis. From perspective of the proposed theory the dynamics of S&P500 index are analyzed.

Unified Growth Theory: A story based on illusions

Por • 6 dic, 2013 • Category: Economía

The Unified Growth Theory is a story based firmly on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. The three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist. The great divergence and the abrupt take-off never happened. All elaborate explanations revolving around these phantom features represent an interesting story but they are scientifically unacceptable and, therefore, they do not explain the economic growth. The Industrial Revolution had no effect on the economic growth. The data clearly indicate that the economic growth was not as complicated and untidy as incorrectly described by the Unified Growth Theory but elegantly simple.

On Agents and Equilibria

Por • 11 nov, 2013 • Category: Economía

This essay discusses the advantages of a probabilistic agent-based approach to questions in theoretical economics, from the nature of economic agents, to the nature of the equilibria supported by their interactions. One idea we propose is that “agents” are meta-individual, hierarchically structured objects, that include as irreducible components groupings of different dimensions. We also explore the effects of non-ergodicity, by constructing a simple stochastic model for the contingent nature of economic interactions.

A new world order and China’s key role

Por • 2 nov, 2013 • Category: Economía

Friedrich List, in his National System of Political Economy (1841), asserted that political economy as espoused in England at that time, far from being a valid science universally, was merely British national opinion, suited only to English historical conditions. List’s institutional school of economics asserted that the doctrine of free trade was devised to keep England rich and powerful at the expense of its trading partners and that it had to be fought with protective tariffs and other devices of economic nationalism by the weaker countries. List’s economic nationalism influenced Asian leaders, including Sun Yat-sen of China, who proposed industrial policies financed with sovereign credit. List was also the influence behind the Meiji Reform Movement of 1868 in Japan. Alexander Hamilton, by proposing the US Treasury using tax revenue to assume and pay off all public debts incurred by the Confederation in his 1791 Report on Public Debt, through the establishment of a national bank, provided the new nation with sovereign credit in the form of paper money for development. China, as the largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region, and potentially the largest in the world, has a key role to play in shaping this new world economic order. To do that, China must look beyond its current myopic effort to join a collapsing global export market economy and provide a model of national development in which foreign trade is reassigned to its proper place in the economy from its current all-consuming priority. The first step in that direction is for China to free itself from dollar hegemony and embark on a domestic development program with sovereign credit.