Artículos con la etiqueta ‘estadísticas y probabilidad’

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

Por • 6 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

n expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark.



Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system

Por • 8 feb, 2014 • Category: Política

The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system’s stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a major empirical finding of the international relations literature.



Global Inequality in Energy Consumption from 1980 to 2010

Por • 31 dic, 2013 • Category: Economía

We study the global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita around the world using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for 1980-2010. We find that the Lorenz curves have moved up during this time period, and the Gini coefficient G has decreased from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.55 in 2010, indicating a decrease in inequality. The global probability distribution of energy consumption per capita in 2010 is close to the exponential distribution with G=0.5. We attribute this result to the globalization of the world economy, which mixes the world and brings it closer to the state of maximal entropy. We argue that global energy production is a limited resource that is partitioned among the world population. The most probable partition is the one that maximizes entropy, thus resulting in the exponential distribution function. A consequence of the latter is the law of 1/3: the top 1/3 of the world population consumes 2/3 of produced energy. We also find similar results for the global probability distribution of CO2 emissions per capita.



Causality and local determinism versus quantum nonlocality

Por • 29 dic, 2013 • Category: Ciencia y tecnología

The entanglement and the violation of Bell and CHSH inequalities in spin polarization correlation experiments (SPCE) is considered to be one of the biggest mysteries of Nature and is called quantum nonlocality. In this paper we show once again that this conclusion is based on imprecise terminology and on the lack of understanding of probabilistic models used in various proofs of Bell and CHSH theorems. These models are inconsistent with experimental protocols used in SPCE. This is the only reason why Bell and CHSH inequalities are violated. A probabilistic non-signalling description of SPCE, consistent with quantum predictions, is possible and it depends explicitly on the context of each experiment. It is also deterministic in the sense that the outcome is determined by supplementary local parameters describing both a physical signals and measuring instruments.



Emergent quantum mechanics of finances

Por • 23 dic, 2013 • Category: Ambiente

This paper is an attempt at understanding the quantum-like dynamics of financial markets in terms of non-differentiable price-time continuum having fractal properties. The main steps of this development are the statistical scaling, the non-differentiability hypothesis, and the equations of motion entailed by this hypothesis. From perspective of the proposed theory the dynamics of S&P500 index are analyzed.



Models and Simulations in Material Science: Two Cases Without Error Bars

Por • 28 nov, 2013 • Category: Educacion

We discuss two research projects in material science in which the results cannot be stated with an estimation of the error: a spectro- scopic ellipsometry study aimed at determining the orientation of DNA molecules on diamond and a scanning tunneling microscopy study of platinum-induced nanowires on germanium. To investigate the reliability of the results, we apply ideas from the philosophy of models in science. Even if the studies had reported an error value, the trustworthiness of the result would not depend on that value alone.



Copulas and time series with long-ranged dependences

Por • 27 nov, 2013 • Category: Crítica

We review ideas on temporal dependences and recurrences in discrete time series from several areas of natural and social sciences. We revisit existing studies and redefine the relevant observables in the language of copulas (joint laws of the ranks). We propose that copulas provide an appropriate mathematical framework to study non-linear time dependences and related concepts – like aftershocks, Omori law, recurrences, waiting times. We also critically argue using this global approach that previous phenomenological attempts involving only a long-ranged autocorrelation function lacked complexity in that they were essentially mono-scale.



Patent Overlay Mapping: Visualizing Technological Distance

Por • 14 sep, 2013 • Category: Educacion

This paper presents a new global patent map that represents all technological categories, and a method to locate patent data of individual organizations and technological fields on the global map. This overlay map technique can support competitive intelligence and policy decision-making. The global patent map is based on similarities in citing-to-cited relationships between categories of the International Patent Classification (IPC) of European Patent Office (EPO) patents from 2000 to 2006. This patent dataset, extracted from the PatStat database, includes 760,000 patent records in more than 400 IPC categories.



Multifractal portrayal of the Swiss population

Por • 21 ago, 2013 • Category: Ambiente

Fractal geometry is a fundamental approach for describing the complex irregularities of the spatial structure of point patterns. The present research characterizes the spatial structure of the Swiss population distribution in the three Swiss geographical regions (Alps, Plateau and Jura) and at the entire country level. These analyses were carried out using fractal and multifractal measures for point patterns, which enabled the estimation of the spatial degree of clustering of a distribution at different scales. The Swiss population dataset is presented on a grid of points and thus it can be modelled as a “point process” where each point is characterized by its spatial location (geometrical support) and a number of inhabitants (measured variable). The fractal characterization was performed by means of the box-counting dimension and the multifractal analysis was conducted through the Renyi’s generalized dimensions and the multifractal spectrum. Results showed that the four population patterns are all multifractals and present different clustering behaviours. Applying multifractal and fractal methods at different geographical regions and at different scales allowed us to quantify and describe the dissimilarities between the four structures and their underlying processes. This paper is the first Swiss geodemographic study applying multifractal methods using high resolution data.



The most controversial topics in Wikipedia: A multilingual and geographical analysis

Por • 31 may, 2013 • Category: sociologia

We present, visualize and analyse the similarities and differences between the controversial topics related to “edit wars” identified in 10 different language versions of Wikipedia. After a brief review of the related work we describe the methods developed to locate, measure, and categorize the controversial topics in the different languages. Visualizations of the degree of overlap between the top 100 list of most controversial articles in different languages and the content related geographical locations will be presented. We discuss what the presented analysis and visualizations can tell us about the multicultural aspects of Wikipedia, and, in general, about cultures of peer-production with focus on universal and specifically, local features. We demonstrate that Wikipedia is more than just an encyclopaedia; it is also a window into divergent social-spatial priorities, interests and preferences.