Artículos con la etiqueta ‘General Finance (q-fin.GN);’

Contextual and Structural Representations of Market-mediated Economic Value

Por • 31 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

How do we assign value to economic transactions? To answer this question, we must consider whether the value of objects is inherent, is a product of social interaction, or involves other mechanisms. Economic theory predicts that there is an optimal price for any market transaction, and can be observed during auctions or other bidding processes. However, there are also social, cultural, and cognitive components to the assignation of value, which can be observed in both human and non-human Primate societies. While behaviors related to these factors are embedded in market interactions, they also involve a biological substrate for the assignation of value (valuation). To synthesize this diversity of perspectives, we will propose that the process of valuation can be modeled computationally and conceived of as a set of interrelated cultural evolutionary, cognitive, and neural processes.

Which factor dominates the industry evolution? A synergy analysis based on China’s ICT industry

Por • 22 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

Industry evolution caused by various reasons, among which technology progress driving industry development has been approved, but with the new trend of industry convergence, inter-industry convergence also plays an increasing important role. We choose china’s listed ICT industry to make empirical analysis. Our main findings are: a) technology progress is the order parameter which dominates industry system evolution. Moreover, industry convergence is the control parameter which is influenced by technology progress; b) Development of technology progress is the core factor for causing evolution of industry system, and industry convergence is the outcome of technology progress; c) Especially, it is important that the dominated role of technology progress will be sustained, even though in the environment of convergence, companies also need focus on self-innovation, rather than only adapt to the new industry evolution trend.

City growth as a resource utilization problem

Por • 12 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

We study a resource utilization scenario characterized by intrinsic attractiveness. We consider a system of many restaurants where customers compete, as in a game, to get the best services out of many choices using iterative learning. Results for the case with uniform attractiveness are reported. When attractiveness is uniformly distributed, it gives rise to a Zipf-Pareto law for the number of customers. We perform an exact calculation for the utilization fraction for the case when choices are made independent of attractiveness. A variant of the model is also introduced where the attractiveness can be treated as a fitness to stay in the business. When a restaurant loses customers, its fitness is replaced by a random fitness. The steady state fitness distribution is characterized by a power law, but the distribution in number of customers is still given by power law, implying the robustness of the model. Our model serves as a paradigm for city size distribution and the emergence of Zipf law.

International Transmission of Shocks and Fragility of a Bank Network

Por • 9 mar, 2014 • Category: Economía

The weighted and directed network of countries based on the number of overseas banks is analyzed in terms of its fragility to the banking crisis of one country. We use two different models to describe transmission of shocks, one local and the other global. Depending on the original source of the crisis, the overall size of crisis impacts is found to differ country by country. For the two-step local spreading model, it is revealed that the scale of the first impact is determined by the out-strength, the total number of overseas branches of the country at the origin of the crisis, while the second impact becomes more serious if the in-strength at the origin is increased. For the global spreading model, some countries named «triggers» are found to play important roles in shock transmission, and the importance of the feed-forward-loop mechanism is pointed out. We also discuss practical policy implications of the present work.

Intensive and extensive biases in economic networks: reconstructing world trade

Por • 20 feb, 2014 • Category: Economía

In economic and financial networks, the strength (total value of the connections) of a given node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting deviations of an empirical network from economically meaningful benchmarks or reconstruct the most likely structure of an economic network when the latter is unknown. However, several studies have proved that real economic networks are topologically very different from networks inferred only from node strengths. Here we provide a detailed analysis for the World Trade Web (WTW) by comparing it to an enhanced null model that simultaneously reproduces the strength and the number of connections of each node.

Propagation of Economic Shocks in Input-Output Networks: A Cross-Country Analysis

Por • 29 ene, 2014 • Category: sociologia

This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European countries before the Great Depression. We show that the impact of economic shocks strongly depends on the nature of the shock and country size. Shocks that impact on final demand without changing production and the technological relationships between sectors have on average a large but very homogeneous impact on the economy.

Why free markets die: An evolutionary perspective

Por • 27 ene, 2014 • Category: Economía

Company mergers and acquisitions are often perceived to act as catalysts for corporate growth in free markets systems: it is conventional wisdom that those activities lead to better and more efficient markets. However, the broad adoption of this perception into corporate strategy is prone to result in a less diverse and more unstable environment, dominated by either very large or very small niche entities. We show here that ancestry, i.e. the cumulative history of mergers, is the key characteristic that encapsulates the diverse range of drivers behind mergers and acquisitions, across a range of industries and geographies. A long-term growth analysis reveals that entities which have been party to fewer mergers tend to grow faster than more highly acquisitive businesses.

Wealth distribution and collective knowledge. A Boltzmann approach

Por • 21 ene, 2014 • Category: Economía

We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the influence of knowledge in the evolution of wealth in a system of agents which interact through the binary trades introduced in Cordier, Pareschi, Toscani, J. Stat. Phys. 2005. The trades, which include both saving propensity and the risks of the market, are here modified in the risk and saving parameters, which now are assumed to depend on the personal degree of knowledge. The numerical simulations show that the presence of knowledge has the potential to produce a class of wealthy agents and to account for a larger proportion of wealth inequality.

A Creepy World

Por • 17 ene, 2014 • Category: sociologia

Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibit a long phase of slow apparent stable evolution, which are nothing but slow maturations towards instabilities, failures and changes of regimes. With examples from history where a small event had a cataclysmic consequence, we propose a novel view of the current state of the world via the logical scenarios that derive, avoiding the traps of an illusionary stability and simple linear extrapolation. The endogenous scenarios are «muddling along», «managing through» and «blood red abyss». The exogenous scenarios are «painful adjustment» and «golden east».

Hierarchicality of Trade Flow Networks Reveals Complexity of Products

Por • 16 ene, 2014 • Category: Economía

With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which currently amount to at least 36 trillion dollars. Interestingly, approximately 30-60 percent of global exports consist of intermediate products. Therefore, the trade flow network of a particular product with high added values can be regarded as a value chain. The problem is weather we can discriminate between these products based on their unique flow network structure. This paper applies the flow analysis method developed in ecology to 638 trading flow networks of different products. We claim that the allometric scaling exponent η can be used to characterize the degree of hierarchicality of a flow network, i.e., whether the trading products flow on long hierarchical chains.