La situación regional trabaja a favor de Pakistán. La reciente conferencia de Estambul (2 de noviembre) puso de manifiesto que Rusia, China, Pakistán e Irán comparten una plataforma de oposición a la prolongación de las bases de EEUU en Afganistán en el período posterior a 2014. El grandioso esquema de la administración Obama de transformar el período de 89 años que hay por delante en el “Siglo de EEUU en el Pacífico” convierte a Pakistán en un socio inmensamente importante para China. Como mínimo, Rusia va a apostar por impulsar la autonomía estratégica de Pakistán. Y lo mismo va a hacer Irán. Ninguna de estas importantes potencias regionales quiere que EEUU despliegue su sistema de defensa antimisiles en el Hindu Kush y Pakistán es partidario de exorcizar de la región la presencia militar de EEUU y sus aliados. Ese es también el significado real de la preparación de Pakistán para que se convierta en miembro de pleno derecho de la Organización para la Cooperación de Shanghai, algo que está al caer.

India and Vietnam inked an agreement for joint oil exploration in the South China Sea on Wednesday. Both countries clearly know what this means for China. China may consider taking actions to show its stance and prevent more reckless attempts in confronting China in the area. Chinese society can not tolerate such repetitive provocations in the South China Sea. A rising China inevitably needs to have some degree of tolerance, and it is risky to take tough actions against provocations. However, an even greater risk is to let the Chinese public bear the grievances that only strategists can bear.

For those who infringe upon our sovereignty to steal the oil, we need to warn them politely, and then take action if they don’t respond. We shouldn’t waste the opportunity to launch some tiny-scale battles that could deter provocateurs from going further. There are more than 1,000 oil and gas wells plus four airports and numerous other facilities in the area but none of them is built by China. Everything will be burned to the ground should a military conflict break out. Who’ll suffer most when Western oil giants withdraw? But out there could just be an ideal place to punish them. Such punishment should be restricted only to the Philippines and Vietnam, who have been acting extremely aggressive these days.

El modelo de conflicto y cooperación inherente a la relación chino-india adquiere un nuevo patrón. En una reciente obra maestra sobre la política exterior de India, Does the Elephant Dance?, David Malone, quien sirvió como Alto Comisionado de Canadá en India durante 2006-2008, escribió con mucha presciencia: “Aunque no puede haber ninguna certeza respecto a un posible futuro conflicto o cooperación futura entre India y China, la probabilidad es una mezcla de tensión relacionada con la seguridad y cooperación económica. Una guerra directa es muy improbable, ambas partes tienen demasiado que perder. Pero las dos naciones se seguirán estorbando, con resultados imprevisibles, mientras tratan de expandir sus respectivas esferas de influencia.”

The end result may be: Afghanistan will be a scapegoat and returning to its old days of instability and chaos while other countries involved in the tangle will be squabbling for power and control. How the international players will play their cards in this one of the most crucial conflicts will determine the future course of peace and security in the Af-Pak region.

«It is our misunderstanding if we think that we will team up with China if we are pressed by the United States,» Rizvi said. «China and the United States have their own relations and they cannot compromise them for the sake of Pakistan.»

Estados Unidos y Pakistán han sido aliados geopolíticos cercanos desde el nacimiento de Pakistán en 1948. En el pasado han necesitado uno del otro. Se necesitan hoy, pero sus prioridades y sus objetivos de políticas públicas se han ido apartando más y más. Ambos están horrorizados por la idea de que su alianza cercana pueda terminar. Pero podría ocurrir.

By 2030 the population of South Asia may reach 2 billion people. Pakistan, Bangladesh and India are the countries with extremely severe economic problems. Since ancient times the Indian subcontinent and the adjacent territories were linked with Central Asia by million of invisible threads and Moscow is very concerned over the situation there especially after “Arab revolutions”…In many aspects the political stability in Central Asia depends on the stability of the state institutions in Pakistan. In other words, Russia should take active part not only in the complex formation of the geopolitical forces in South Asia but also contribute to the settlement of emerging inter-state conflicts in the region, switching them into the mode of constant dialogue and mutual understanding. This implies hard work for the Russian diplomacy in this direction.

China is adamant that the West «must respect» Pakistan’s sovereignty. The message was delivered during Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani’s recent four-day visit to Beijing, which celebrated no less than six decades of strategic relations – involving, among other issues, nuclear collaboration and support over the ultra-sensitive Kashmir question. The Times of India reconstructed the message as a stark warning that: «any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China.»

Mrs. Thatcher coined the slogan, “There is no alternative” or TINA. To ensure that, in fact, there would be no alternative, the International Monetary Fund, backed by the U.S. Treasury, made as a condition of all financial assistance to countries with budgetary crises adherence to its strict neoliberal conditions.