Artículos con la etiqueta ‘irán’

Threats to the U.S. as viewed by the country’s intelligence

Por • 12 feb, 2012 • Category: Internacionales

The IC’ report is interesting first of all because apart from real threats it also mentions the states, which do not tolerate the US unilateral hegemony in the world such as Russia, China and Iran, which proves an evident political subtext of the report. If before the aggression in Iraq despite of an unambiguous position of neo-Conservators the intelligence honetsly reported to George Bush that Saddam Hussein did not have chemical weapons, now there is an obvious trend to draw a certain picture with the new enemies of the US. The 30-pages report has seven parts, which differ in their volume. The first part deals with the terrorism threat. According to the report, in the next 2-3 years the terrorism threat will enter a critical stage with such organizations as Al Qaeda uniting into more centralized movements. It will require the involvement of all partners and a sound strategy to withstand such a terrorist threat, the report states.



The Conundrum of Iran

Por • 27 ene, 2012 • Category: Política

At the moment, maintaining the status quo is not in the US interests, holds Stratfor, a US-based global intelligence agency: “If al Assad survives and if the situation in Iraq proceeds as it has been proceeding, then Iran is creating a reality that will define the region. The United States does not have a broad and effective coalition, and certainly not one that would rally in the event of war. It has only Israel …” (2) If the conflict with Iran takes the shape of a protracted bombing campaign and comes as a prologue to the occupation of the country, the US will need to strengthen its positions in adjacent regions, meaning that Washington will be trying to draw the Caucasian republics (Georgia, Azerbaijan) and those of Central Asia into the orbit of its policy and thus tightening the “Anaconda loop” around Russia.



The myth of an «isolated’ Iran

Por • 18 ene, 2012 • Category: Internacionales

It’s not at all far-fetched to imagine hardcore full-spectrum dominance practitioners inside the Pentagon riding a false-flag incident in the Persian Gulf to an attack on Iran (or simply using it to pressure Tehran into a fatal miscalculation). Consider as well the new US military strategy just unveiled by President Barack Obama in which the focus of Washington’s attention is to move from two failed ground wars in the Greater Middle East to the Pacific (and so to China). Iran happens to be right in the middle, in Southwest Asia, with all that oil heading toward an energy-hungry modern Middle Kingdom over waters guarded by the US Navy. So yes, this larger-than-life psychodrama we call «Iran» may turn out to be as much about China and the US dollar as it is about the politics of the Persian Gulf or Iran’s non-existent bomb. The question is: What rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Beijing to be born?



Red lines in the Strait of Hormuz

Por • 18 ene, 2012 • Category: Política

We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force the other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter into broader accommodations. And that’s what makes the situation dangerous. When fundamental issues are at stake, each side is in a position to profoundly harm the other if pressed, and neither side is in a position to negotiate a broad settlement, a long game of chess ensues. And in that game of chess, the possibilities of miscalculation, of a bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, are very real. Ideology aside – and the United States negotiating with the «axis of evil» or Iran with the «Great Satan» would be tough sells to their respective domestic audiences – the problem with this is that it is difficult to see what each has to offer the other. Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms run on oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz. Iran may or may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes Europe and China. The New Year thus begins where we expected: at the Strait of Hormuz.



Chávez considera “absurdo” la posible sanción de EE UU a los países que recibieron a Ahmadineyad

Por • 17 ene, 2012 • Category: Nacionales

Defendió que estos países son “libres” y apuntó que “allá los Estados Unidos que tiene esa pretensión”. “No van a poder. El imperio norteamericano terminará siendo lo que decía Mao (Tse-tung): un imperio de papel y nosotros pequeños tigres de acero, pero tigres de acero y de acero, además. Para allá vamos”, concluyó.



Wen stresses energy trade with Riyadh

Por • 17 ene, 2012 • Category: Política

Against a backdrop of growing regional tensions over the Iran nuclear issue, Premier Wen Jiabao called for more trade and cooperation in crude oil and natural gas with Saudi Arabia during his state visit there. ”China and Saudi Arabia should keep deepening cooperation in the face of changeable and complicated regional and international trends,” Wen said in Riyadh on Saturday. ”Both sides must strive together to expand trade and cooperation, upstream and downstream, in crude oil and natural gas,” noted Wen, who will also visit the oil and gas producing countries of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Under the agreement, Aramco will hold a 62.5 percent stake in the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co joint venture, with Sinopec owning the remainder. The refinery project will cost at least $8.5 billion. Wen’s visit came shortly after Iran, China’s third biggest oil supplier, threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response to Western sanctions against its nuclear program.



China defends Iran oil trade despite US push

Por • 12 ene, 2012 • Category: Política

Geithner met Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Vice President Xi Jinping Wednesday amid escalating international tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions a day after the White House accused Tehran of ”blatant disregard for its responsibilities.” Washington is ”in the early stages of a broad global diplomatic effort to take advantage of this new legislation to significantly intensify the pressure on Iran,” a senior US official told journalists in Beijing Wednesday. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of Chinese energy website china5e.com, told the Global Times that sanctions imposed on Iran are happening too soon for China, which buys 20-22 percent of the Islamic state’s crude oil. Han pointed out Premier Wen’s trip, starting on Saturday, to top oil supplier Saudi Arabia could be important if China turns elsewhere for crude. ”Reducing crude purchases from Iran could actually benefit China’s energy reform in the long run. We are too dependent on the overseas markets.”



Obama reveals ‘leaner’ US defence strategy

Por • 8 ene, 2012 • Category: Internacionales

Barack Obama, the US president, has rolled out a new defence strategy to shrink the country’s armed forces at a time of tight budgets, but also promised to maintain his country as the world’s dominant military power. «Our military will be leaner but the world must know – the United States is going to maintain our military superiority with armed forces that are agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies and threats,» Obama told a news briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday. Emphasising the US presence in the Asia-Pacific region, where there is growing rivalry with an increasingly assertive China, Obama also said the military would remain vigilant in the Middle East.



Pentagon plan changes game in Asia

Por • 8 ene, 2012 • Category: Política

The Pentagon issued a new defense plan on Thursday. The new strategy reduces defense spending in the next 10 years, ends the policy of maintaining constant strength to fight two wars at once and prepares the US to fight one war while waging a holding operation elsewhere against a second threat. This is a contractive strategy in general, but gives prominence to the Asia-Pacific region. According to the officials of Pentagon, the changes in strategy are mainly aimed at Iran and China. The growth and decline in economic strength is the starting point for national competition as well as its destination. It reflects national tendencies. But military and politics are often powerful tools to disturb or twist the trend. China should try to avoid a new cold war with the US, but by no means should it give up its peripheral security in exchange for US’ ease in Asia.



The worst case for war with Iran

Por • 4 ene, 2012 • Category: Educacion

If you’d like to read a textbook example of war-mongering disguised as «analysis,» I recommend Matthew Kroenig’s forthcoming article in Foreign Affairs, titled «Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option.» It is a remarkably poor piece of advocacy, all the more surprising because Kroenig is a smart scholar who has done some good work in the past. It makes one wonder if there’s something peculiar in the D.C. water supply. There is a simple and time-honored formula for making the case for war, especially preventive war. First, you portray the supposed threat as dire and growing, and then try to convince people that if we don’t act now, horrible things will happen down the road. (Remember Condi Rice’s infamous warnings about Saddam’s «mushroom cloud»?) All this step requires is a bit of imagination and a willingness to assume the worst. Second, you have to persuade readers that the costs and risks of going to war aren’t that great. If you want to sound sophisticated and balanced, you acknowledge that there are counterarguments and risks involved. But then you do your best to shoot down the objections and emphasize all the ways that those risks can be minimized. In short: In Step 1 you adopt a relentlessly gloomy view of the consequences of inaction; in Step 2 you switch to bulletproof optimism about how the war will play out.