Artículos con la etiqueta ‘Paradoja de Ellsberg’

Identifying Quantum Structures in the Ellsberg Paradox

Por • 17 feb, 2013 • Category: Economía

Empirical evidence has confirmed that quantum effects systematically occur also outside the microscopic domain, while quantum structures satisfactorily model various situations in several areas of science, including biological, cognitive and social processes. In this paper, we elaborate a quantum mechanical model which faithfully describes the ‘Ellsberg paradox’ in economics, showing that the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics is capable to represent the ‘ambiguity’ present in this kind of situations, because of their ‘contextuality’. Then, we analyze the data collected in a concrete experiment we performed on the Ellsberg paradox and work out a complete representation of them in complex Hilbert space, indicating that genuine quantum effects occur in the decision processes of the participants in the experiment. Our approach sheds light on ‘ambiguity laden’ decision processes in economics and decision theory, and allows to deal with different Ellsberg-type generalizations, e.g., the ‘Machina paradox’.



Paradoxical Decision-Making Explained By Quantum Theory

Por • 15 abr, 2011 • Category: sociologia

At the heart of the Ellsberg paradox are two different kinds of uncertainties. The first is a probability: the chance of picking a red ball versus picking a non-red ball, which we are told is 1/3. The second is an ambiguity: the chance of the non-red ball being black or yellow which is entirely uncertain. Conventional decision theory cannot easily handle both types of uncertainty. But various researchers in recent years have pointed out that quantum theory can cope with with both types and what’s more, can accurately model the patterns of answers that humans come up with.