Artículos con la etiqueta ‘probabilidad’

Explanation and Randomness

Por • 29 mar, 2014 • Category: Educacion

The aim of this paper is to elaborate a notion of explanation which is applicable to stochastic processes such as quantum processes. The model-theoretic approach was adopted in order to delimit appropriate classes, by defining set-theoretical predicates, of different kinds of physical transformations that quantum systems suffer, either of transitions or of transmutations, by interaction or in a spontaneous manner. To explain a singular quantum process consists in showing that it is feasible to model it as an indeterministic process of certain specified kind.

A statistical physics perspective on criticality in financial markets

Por • 28 oct, 2013 • Category: Ambiente

Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believed to be critical by analogy to physical systems but few statistically founded evidence have been given. Through a data-based methodology and comparison to simulations inspired by statistical physics of complex systems, we show that the Dow Jones and indices sets are not rigorously critical. However, financial systems are closer to the criticality in the crash neighborhood.

Independent Events in a Simple Random Experiment and the Meaning of Independence

Por • 22 abr, 2013 • Category: Filosofía

We count the number and patterns of pairs and tuples of independent events in a simple random experiment: first a fair coin is flipped and then a fair die is tossed. The first number, equal to 888,888, suggest that there are some open questions about the structure of independence even in a finite sample space. We discuss briefly these questions and possible approaches to answer them.

The workings of the Maximum Entropy Principle in collective human behavior

Por • 27 ene, 2012 • Category: sociologia

We exhibit compelling evidence regarding how well does the MaxEnt principle describe the rank-distribution of city-populations via an exhaustive study of the 50 Spanish provinces (more than 8000 cities) in a time-window of 15 years (1996-2010). We show that the dynamics that governs the population-growth is the deciding factor that originates the observed distributions. The connection between dynamics and distributions is unravelled via MaxEnt.

Stephen Jay Gould’s Critique of Progress

Por • 18 feb, 2011 • Category: sociologia

Given human arrogance and the prevalence of progressivist ideology, it is commonly presumed that the emergence of Homo sapiens is the inevitable apex of evolutionary processes. Counter to this view, Gould argued that, although natural selection led to some degree of “progress” on short timescales in the limited sense that it dialectically adapted creatures to their environments, over longer scales of time there was no deterministic direction to the history of life. The fundamental importance of contingency in history was perhaps the most centrally important feature of Gould’s thinking.

Stable Parallel Looped Networks – A New Systems Framework for the Evolution of Order

Por • 13 feb, 2011 • Category: Ambiente

When attempting to explain the creation of a highly ordered system from a disordered one for living beings, in addition to identifying the sequential or iterative sequences of steps, we need to address which laws and mechanisms guide all the necessary components to indeed follow these sequences of steps.

Lyapunov Time

Por • 26 ene, 2011 • Category: Opinion

Our society today – is as much an incorporeal mirage, as the self-confident idiocy of the contemporary man in the street. But we know that “Lyapunov time” is our time. That is why, the hand is stretching for…(no, not to what you were thinking, yet) books by Poincare, Kolmogorov, Stengers, Tom, Prigogine, Capra, Nichols, Mandelbrot, and other interesting authors.